This is the year to dive into the office Oscar pool, because what looked murky in December has since become clear with a distinct consensus from the preliminary awards. Now watch me be wrong, but here are my fearless predictions for Sunday’s Academy Awards:
* Best Picture: Birdman — It’s a two-horse race between Birdman and Boyhood, with the former getting a late boost from the Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild.
* Best Director: Alejandro Iñárritu, Birdman — Same match-up. But voters will decide to twin this award with Best Picture, rewarding innovative technique and magic realism over 12 years of patience.
* Best Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman — Have you noticed I’m all in for Birdman? Could be embarrassing if the Academy doesn’t share my enthusiasm. Eddie Redmayne won most of the earlier awards, but Oscar voters will go with age, experience and a personal comeback narrative over a mere great performance. First time nominees rarely win in this category.
* Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice — Bet the farm. Moore is brilliant as a 50-year-old drifting into dementia, the Oscars love impaired characters and Moore has already lost four times. I’ll stake my (non-existent) Academy membership on this one.
* Best Supporting Actor: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash — Another virtual sure thing. It’s not really a supporting role, but his appearance in the category gives him the edge. Simmons is a well-liked character actor who finally gets a juicy central role and he goes to town with it. Only Edward Norton could possibly catch him, but I don’t see it happening.
* Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood — She’s no better than co-star Ethan Hawke, but the movie’s fans will focus their love on Arquette.
* Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6 — Never doubt the Disney marketing machine.
* Best Cinematography: Birdman.
* Best Costume Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel.
* Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour.
* Best Documentary Short Subject: Crisis Hotline, Veterans Press 1.
* Best Film Editing: Boyhood — 12 years of film!!
* Best Foreign Language Film: Ida.
* Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Grand Budapest Hotel.
* Best Original Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel.
* Best Original Song: “Glory,” from Selma — The Academy has to give it something.
* Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel.
* Best Animated Short: Feast.
* Best Live Action Short: Boogaloo and Graham.
* Best Sound Editing: American Sniper —See Original Song.
* Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash.
* Best Visual Effects: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes.
* Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game.
* Best Original Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel.