Several of the acting categories in the 86th annual Academy Awards appear to be locked up, but the top statuette for Best Picture is headed towards a photo finish this Sunday evening.
By most accounts, 2013 was a solid year at the movies, with an array of first-rate releases. Nine films received the required 5 percent of first-place votes and, therefore, are in the running to be named the year’s best. By anonymous polling, preliminary awards results and pure hunches, the Best Picture race looks to be among three films — 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle and Gravity.
Gravity is a technical (and directorial) achievement of the highest order, American Hustle has a quartet of fine performances, but is otherwise lightweight. If you are entering an Oscars poll, put your money on 12 Years a Slave, the post-Civil War depiction of slavery in America, as seen through the eyes of a free-born, cultured black man who is kidnapped and forced into bondage. It is an Important movie — with a capital “I” — the sort of film the Academy members are honored to have represent their industry and seems likely to stand the test of time, factors which play a large part in voting.
(If I had a vote in the Academy, it would go to Nebraska, Alexander Payne’s father-son road trip film. But I don’t, and it would be a wasted vote anyway.)
Gravity is a visually stunning movie, a cinematic tour de force by Alfonso Cuarón, who probably copped the Best Director Award from the opening 14-minute establishing shot of weightless outer space. And he showed a mastery of the 3-D format, just as last year’s Best Director Ang Lee (Life of Pi) did. Its story line is less novel, though. While that probably scuttles its chances for Best Picture, look for Gravity to walk off with the largest Oscar total on Sunday. It seems likely to win for film editing, cinematography, sound editing, sound mixing and visual effects.
American Hustle goes into Sunday’s ceremony with 10 nominations (tied with Gravity and one up on 12 Years a Slave), but the only category it seems to have a chance to take is Best Costume Design. Its flashy 1970s wardrobe is period-perfect and Amy Adams’s low-cut, come-hither dress alone is an anti-gravity marvel.
If life were fair, Chiwetel Ejiofor would walk away with the Best Actor award for 12 Years a Slave, but, c’mon, this is the Oscars we are talking about. At least as important as a stellar acting job is a demonstration of previously unexpected talent. That is why Matthew McConaughey will win for his portrayal of AIDS-ravaged Ron Woodroof in Dallas Buyers Club, which trumps his many dull romantic comedy turns. He has won a lot of the preliminary awards — Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild, BAFTA — and has been tirelessly charming voters at various promotional events, which matters a lot. Yes, the Academy likes him, they really like him.
Since Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine was released this summer, Cate Blanchett has been the front runner in a Best Actress field crowded with previous Oscar winners. The only thing that stands in her way is the anti-Woody factor. He, of course, has been accused of molesting the daughter of his former girlfriend, Mia Farrow, and that could be reason enough to vote against Blanchett, if you were looking for a reason. My guess is vindictive Academy members will take it out on Allen directly, blocking his chances for the Original Screenplay Oscar, but Blanchett with emerge unscathed and victorious.
If you had one category that you had to bet the mortgage on, make it Best Supporting Actor, for Jared Leto can’t miss for his cross-gendered Rayon in Dallas Buyers Club, for pretty much the same reasons that McConaughey will win. And in her first appearing in a feature film, Lupita Nyong’o earns the Best Supporting Actress award as brutalized Patsey is 12 Years a Slave.
If you still have time to place a bet on the Oscars (sucker in your friends or fly to London and head to the nearest turf accountant), here are the likely winners:
• Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
• Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
• Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
• Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
• Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
• Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
• Best Animated Feature Film: Frozen
• Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty (Italy)
• Best Original Screenplay: Nebraska
• Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
• Best Costume Design: American Hustle
• Best Original Song: “Let It Go,” Frozen
• Best Original Score: Gravity
• Best Documentary: 20 Feet From Stardom
• Best Documentary (short): The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
• Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club
• Best Production Design: The Great Gatsby
• Best Film Editing: Gravity
• Best Cinematography: Gravity
• Best Sound Editing: Gravity
• Best Sound Mixing: Gravity
• Best Visual Effects: Gravity
• Best Short Film (animated): Get a Horse!
• Best Short Film (live action): Aque! No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)