2012 will officially become the year of the silent, black-and-white film after Sunday night’s Oscars ceremony. That is when The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius’s clever homage to the early days of the movies will be anointed as the best picture of the year.
Of course, it is not. The Descendants is, but there is no denying the groundswell of affection in Hollywood for the band of French artists who came to town and made a valentine to the beginnings of sound cinema.
You can expect The Artist to have substantial coattails as well, earning Hazanavicius the direction award for his first nomination. It may also turn the trick for the movie’s leading man, Jean Dujardin, but my instincts say that he will be edged out by George Clooney, the cuckolded Hawaiian attorney of The Descendants.
And if Clooney wins, he should thank his flip-flops, which he wore to run in an endearingly klutzy manner after he learns that his wife has been cheating on him. Touches like that which chip away at Clooney’s perfection help to humanize him and gain the Academy’s embrace.
Best Actress is really a two-horse race between Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) and Viola Davis (The Help). Streep owns the record for the most performance nominations and has won twice, but not for the past 20 years, because Academy voters hold her to a higher standard, expecting her to be brilliant every time out and shrugging when she is.
Still, they figured out that she is a dead-ringer for French chef Julia Child and as soon as they did, she morphed into an uncanny Margaret Thatcher. Surely they will find the transformation Oscar-worthy.
If Davis loses, the voters will feel collective guilt over passing over an African-American and make up for it by giving the supporting actress statuette to Octavia Spencer (also of The Help). Janet McTeer deserves the award for stealing Albert Nobbs away from star Glenn Close, but that is not going to happen.
And the best supporting actor contest is a lifetime achievement competition between two 82-year-old icons — Christopher Plummer (Beginners) and Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close). Both men have been nominated once previously, and neither has ever won. I thought von Sydow’s silent performance was the heart of the quirky 9-11 drama, but Plummer has won every preliminary award in sight, so expect him to add an Oscar to his mantel.
At a mere 76, Woody Allen is a youngster by comparison, but he still churns out a movie a year, whether he has a good idea for one or not. Most of the films he has made over the past decade were trivial toss-offs, unworthy of the guy who gave us Crimes and Misdemeanors, Zelig and Purple Rose of Cairo, but he has snapped back with the funny and thoughtful ode to nostalgia, Midnight in Paris. Although he perennially snubs the Oscars with his absence, expect him to cop the original screenplay award.
The adapted screenplay category is more competitive, with the most impressive work turned in by Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian for harnessing a virtually unfilmable baseball stats treatise into the movie Moneyball. But expect the Academy to follow the lead of the Writers Guild and give the award to Alexander Payne and his co-writers on The Descendants.
So if you are having friends over Sunday night to watch the telecast, A) take a nap first and B) sucker them into a pool and make some money by using my picks:
* Best Picture: The Artist
* Best Actor in a Leading Role: George Clooney, The Descendants
* Best Actress in a Leading Role: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
* Best Actor in a Supporting Role: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
* Best Actress in a Supporting Role: Octavia Spencer, The Help
* Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
* Best Animated Feature Film: Rango
* Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation (Iran)
* Best Documentary: Undefeated
* Best Original Screenplay: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
* Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants